Vols try to right ship at Auburn

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/17/2007 - Auburn, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 22nd-ranked Tennessee Volunteers, led by SEC Player of the Year hopeful Chris Lofton, invade Auburn tonight for a battle with the Tigers.

Tennessee had a streak of nine consecutive wins before losing its last two games by three combined points. After losing to Vanderbilt on a last-second shot last Wednesday, the Vols dropped a 68-66 decision at Ohio State on Saturday in a non-conference clash of national heavyweights. Tennessee has only played three true road games to date, and two of those have resulted in defeat.

All 11 of Auburn's wins have come at home, an obvious reason for the club to be confident tonight. The Tigers have lost their last two games overall, however, and they are coming off a heart-breaking 65-63 setback to LSU on Saturday.

Tennessee owns a commanding 66-35 lead in the all-time series with Auburn, including seven victories in the last nine meetings with the Tigers.

It is hard to find another player in the nation who means as much to his team as Chris Lofton does to Tennessee. Lofton has been the team's leading scorer in 13 of the team's 17 games to date. He is averaging 22.5 ppg on the strength of his 51.5 percent shooting from the field, including 46.4 percent from three- point range, and he is an 80.7 percent free throw shooter as well. JaJuan Smith is averaging 14.1 ppg for Tennessee, and Duke Crews adds 10.2 ppg to the mix. Lofton managed 21 points against Ohio State despite constant hounding by Buckeye defenders. The Vols connected on only 38.6 percent of their field goal attempts in that clash and were outscored 18-5 from the foul line. A 46-30 rebounding advantage also hurt the cause.

Auburn does not possess a single player who can be considered a star, but the fact that five players average double figures in scoring speaks to the team's offensive balance. Rasheem Barrett leads the group with 12.8 ppg, and Korvotney Barber (12.2 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 40 blocks) is close behind. Frank Tolbert checks in with 11.5 ppg, while Josh Dollard and Quan Prowell are contributing 11.0 ppg apiece. Dollard leads the team in rebounding as well with 7.2 rpg. Barrett scored 18 points for Auburn in the narrow loss to LSU, while Prowell pitched in 12 points and Dollard tallied 11 points. The Tigers were held to 39.3 percent shooting from the floor, including a 5-of-18 effort from three-point range.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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