Surging Irish set sights on Panthers in tournament play

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/11/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After a surprising regular-season showing, the 16th-ranked and second-seeded Pittsburgh Panthers now begin their run in the Big East Tournament tonight against the seventh-seeded Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the quarterfinals at Madison Square Garden. The victor of this contest moves on to the semifinals versus Cincinnati or West Virginia on Friday.

Picked to finish ninth in the Big East preseason poll, Pitt defied all odds and overcame a lack of experience for a second place showing at 13-5. The Panthers, who lost a majority of their production from a season ago, also won 24 regular-season games and moved into the Top 25 for the second part of the campaign. Winners of three straight and eight of their last nine games, the Panthers are now ready for another successful run in the postseason. Since 2000-01, Pitt has won a conference-high 19 games in the Big East Tournament, marching its way to seven of the last nine titles games. The team took home two titles during the stretch, with the most recent coming in 2008.

As for the Irish, they continued their late charge last night with a 68-56 besting of 10th-seeded Seton Hall in second-round play. It was the fifth straight victory for ND, which may have just locked up a spot in the NCAA Tournament with last night's performance.

ND's current winning streak start with a 68-53 upset of Pittsburgh on February 24th and that victory tied the all-time series at 27-27 between the programs.

Luke Harangody looked like himself last night, recording a double-double of 20 points and 10 rebounds to lift ND past Seton Hall. Harangody, who missed five of the last six games of the regular season with a bruised right knee, made 9- of-15 field goals for the game. ND continued its defensive improvement, holding Seton Hall to 56 points and a dismal 34.5 percent shooting performance from the floor. The Irish have now held five straight opponents to 64 points or fewer and that is remarkable accomplishment for a team that allowed over 71.0 ppg in conference play this season. The newly found stingy defense, mixed with a healthy Harangody, who averages 23.2 ppg and 9.7 rpg, makes ND a real threat for the title. Of course the Irish have other players to rely on, as Tim Abromaitis and Ben Hansbrough averaged 17.2 and 12.0 ppg, respectively, during the regular season.

Pitt's success this season is due in large part to the emergence of Ashton Gibbs, who earned the Big East's Most Improved Player Award. After averaging just 4.3 ppg as a freshman last season, Gibbs paced the Panthers with an average of 16.2 ppg this campaign. A second-team All-Big East selection, Gibbs is extremely accurate at the foul line (.890 percent) and he also shoots 40.4 percent from three-point range. Brad Wanamaker, a jack of all trades, adds 12.0 ppg and 5.7 rpg, to go along with a team-high 4.7 apg for the Panthers. Jermaine Dixon and Gilbert Brown tack on 10.7 ppg apiece for Pitt, which has done a nice job holding foes to 61.7 ppg and 39.8 percent shooting from the field.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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