Chargers Look to Stop Slide vs. Raiders

Football Betting Lines

12/04/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Oakland Raiders entered the 2008 season hoping they could challenge the standing of the San Diego Chargers in the AFC West.

As the two prepare to face off on Thursday night at Qualcomm Stadium, the Raiders have achieved that goal. Too bad the position they'll be vying for in Week 14 is second place in the worst division in football.

Of all the negative on-field stories in the NFL this season, the consistently poor play of the Chargers has perhaps been the most stunning.

A consensus favorite to run away with the division this season, one year after going 11-5 and advancing to the AFC Championship Game, Norv Turner's club has instead endured a precipitous fall from grace that has all but eliminated the team's chance to return to the postseason.

San Diego's 22-16 home loss to the upstart Atlanta Falcons last Sunday was the team's fifth defeat in its last six games, with the only victory over that stretch a narrow 20-19 affair over the two-win Kansas City Chiefs.

The Bolts are 4-8 in their second season under Turner, and after averaging more than 11 wins per season between 2004 and 2007, are now just one defeat away from their first losing record since going 4-12 in 2003.

A sharp decline in production from future Hall-of-Fame running back LaDainian Tomlinson has been San Diego's most identifiable problem during the campaign.

After rushing for at least 1,200 yards in each of his first seven seasons in the league, Tomlinson (794 yards) is on pace for just 1,059 in 2008. The perennial All-Pro's 3.7 yards per carry are the fewest since his rookie season of 2001, and he is on pace for fewer than 10 touchdowns after averaging better than 18 per year over his first seven seasons.

The 29-year-old Tomlinson, who has repeatedly claimed that his health is not an issue, comes off a week in which he was held to 24 yards on 14 carries by the Falcons, and has reached 100 rushing yards just twice all season.

The San Diego defense has not done the team many favors either. The Chargers enter Week 14 ranked 27th in the league in total defense (367.6 yards per game), 31st against the pass (260.6 yards per game), and only one team has allowed more than the team's 21 touchdown passes surrendered.

Like the Chargers, the Raiders have also suffered through a miserable 2008 campaign, although theirs comes as far less of a surprise.

Last week, Oakland failed to follow up a stunning 31-10 win at first-place Denver the Sunday before, falling by a 20-13 count at home to help the Chiefs snap a seven-game losing streak.

The loss clinched the Silver and Black's sixth consecutive losing season, and the 3-9 Raiders are now just one defeat away from a sixth straight year of double-digit losses.

Since reaching the Super Bowl following the 2002 season, the Raiders are 22-70 (.239), the worst record in the league over that span. Interim head coach Tom Cable, who has gone 2-5 since taking over following Lane Kiffin's firing, is the fifth coach the once-proud team has employed in the past six seasons.

SERIES HISTORY

Oakland has a 54-41-2 record in its all-time regular season series with San Diego, but has lost the last 10 in a row to the Chargers, including a 28-18 home loss in Week 4 and home-and-home sweeps in every year from 2004 through 2007. The Raiders' last win in the series was a 34-31 overtime triumph at home in 2003, and they are 0-5 in San Diego since last winning there in 2002.

Oakland won the only postseason meeting between the teams, prevailing by a 34-27 count in the 1980 AFC Championship.

Turner is 4-1 all-time against his former employer the Raiders, including 1-1 in his tenure in Washington (1994-2000). Oakland's Cable will be meeting both Turner and the Chargers for the first time as a head coach.

WHEN THE RAIDERS HAVE THE BALL

The strength of the Raiders offense, and perhaps the whole team, for that matter, is a running game that ranks 10th in the league (123.8 yards per game). Running backs Justin Fargas (629 rushing yards, 1 TD) and Darren McFadden (405 rushing yards, 3 TD, 17 receptions) have both been effective within the Raider scheme when healthy, with Fargas getting most of the tough yards between the tackles and McFadden playing more of a dual rushing- receiving role. Fargas went for 82 yards on 18 carries with his first touchdown of the year in last week's loss to the Chiefs, while McFadden made his three receptions count for 50 yards. When Oakland can't establish the ground game, an offense that has sputtered with JaMarcus Russell (1729 passing yards, 7 TD, 4 INT) engineering the passing attack is in big trouble. Russell has completed just over 50 percent of his throws this year, including a 10- of-28, 132-yard game against the hapless Chiefs last Sunday. Tight end Zach Miller (37 receptions, 1 TD) has been the Raiders' most reliable pass-catcher, and the team's wideout corps did not account for a single offensive yard a week ago. Ronald Curry (15 receptions, 1 TD), Johnnie Lee Higgins (8 receptions, 1 TD), and Ashley Lelie (11 receptions, 2 TD) are the team's best outside threats, at least nominally. The Oakland line has allowed 31 sacks on the season, but did not surrender one last Sunday.

San Diego comes into Thursday's game ranking a middle-of-the-road 15th in the league against the run (107 yards per game), but will be trying to erase the sting of the 31-carry, 120-yard performance they allowed ex-Charger Michael Turner to post last week. The three-man line of nose tackle Jamal Williams (42 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and ends Igor Olshansky (25 tackles, 2 sacks) and Luis Castillo (32 tackles, 1.5 sacks) has not performed up to expectations this year, and inside linebackers Stephen Cooper (64 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and Tim Dobbins (48 tackles, 1 INT) have not made nearly enough plays behind them. Williams managed six tackles against Atlanta last week, and Dobbins paced the club's linebackers with nine stops. The deficiencies of a pass rush that has only 23 sacks on the season, including none of rookie QB Matt Ryan last Sunday, has had a trickle-down effect for the beleaguered secondary. Outside linebackers Shaun Phillips (57 tackles, 4 sacks) and Jyles Tucker (29 tackles, 4 sacks) will need to apply heat to Russell on Thursday night, with cornerbacks Antonio Cromartie (54 tackles, 2 INT) and Quentin Jammer (78 tackles, 2 INT) along with safety Eric Weddle (98 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) among those trying to force a turnover on the back end. Jammer had two forced fumbles against the Falcons last week, while Weddle posted a team-best 10 stops with a forced fumble of his own.

WHEN THE CHARGERS HAVE THE BALL

Though quarterbacks are generally judged by their ability to win football games, the Chargers' Philip Rivers (2955 passing yards, 23 TD, 10 INT), who leads the AFC in touchdown passes and passer rating (100.5) as Week 14 begins, can certainly claim to be having a strong year. That said, Rivers comes off a less-than-memorable day behind center against Atlanta, as he completed 17- of-30 passes for a season-low 149 yards and failed to throw a scoring strike for just the second time all season. Top receivers Vincent Jackson (39 receptions, 5 TD) and Chris Chambers (26 receptions, 5 TD) combined for just one catch totaling two yards (by Chambers) in the loss, though Malcolm Floyd (21 receptions, 3 TD) added value with a team-best five grabs for 59 yards. Tight end Antonio Gates (46 receptions, 6 TD) logged just three receptions in the defeat. Without question, establishing the running game will be job number one for the Bolts on Thursday night, and given Tomlinson's history against the Raiders, that lingers as a distinct possibility. Tomlinson has topped 100 rushing yards in five of his last six meetings against the Raiders, including a season-high 106 yards in Oakland in Week 4.

Tomlinson has a good chance to break loose on Thursday against a Raider defense that ranks 29th in the NFL against the run (158.8 yards per game) and couldn't do much to slow the Kansas City ground game last Sunday. Oakland surrendered 145 rushing yards to the Chiefs, though 48 of that total went to quarterback Tyler Thigpen. Linebackers Kirk Morrison (101 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT), Thomas Howard (78 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT), and strong safety Gibril Wilson (98 tackles 1 INT) have been the most interested run-stoppers for the club this year, and high-priced defensive tackle Tommy Kelly (44 tackles, 4.5 sacks) managed four stops in a rare noteworthy performance against the Chiefs. The strength of the Oakland defense remains in coverage, where cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha (30 tackles, 1 INT) limited the Chiefs' Dwayne Bowe to just two catches last week, and fellow CB Chris Johnson (18 tackles, 2 INT) logged his second INT of the year. The pass rush has been less effective, though Kelly did manage a sack of Thigpen last Sunday and end Kalimba Edwards (44 tackles, 5 sacks) has had his moments as well. The Raiders are eighth in the league in passing defense (192.2 yards per game) as Week 14 begins.

FANTASY FOCUS

The playoffs begin in many fantasy leagues this week, and if you're an owner of a great many Raiders or Chargers, there's a good chance you're not in the postseason. But if you were lucky enough to make it, Oakland tight end Miller remains a strong play, and running back Fargas also tends to contribute some points and is worth using.

On the San Diego side, Tomlinson's performances have sunk the high hopes of many fantasy managers, but you can look for him to have his most productive day of the year against the Raiders on Thursday night. Rivers and Gates also remain first-rate fantasy options, and against Oakland's sketchy attack, the San Diego defense is a worthwhile play. The Bolts' Nate Kaeding is the only kicker you should consider using in this one.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

For weeks now, the world has been awaiting a resurgence from the San Diego Chargers that simply hasn't arrived. The Chargers have looked like a shell of their former selves for most of the season, and even a four-game win streak to end the year is unlikely to salvage what was supposed to be another banner campaign for the club. Still, San Diego needs a win in a bad way in order to wash away the taste of three straight narrow defeats, and figures to punish the Raiders for the problems they've encountered in dropping out of the playoff race. Look for Tomlinson to give the Chargers a spark with his running, for Fargas and the Raiders to be unable to match him on the other side, and for San Diego to walk away with a decisive home victory.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Chargers 27, Raiders 10

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds

Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it. Work left to do: Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney. Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson. Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable. Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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